Alex Welte

Published on September 27, 2018 by

Editorial: The bigger picture

Formal scientific experimental investigations tend to rely on comparing situations where differences are to some extend directly controlled, or at least known. However, it is clearly impossible to investigate, in such a manner, every detail of life, or even a slightly narrower aspect like ‘healthcare’ – by examining each choice and evaluating its role in a ‘total package’ of ‘lifestyle’, ‘care’ or ‘policy’. The current edition of the SACEMA Quarterly features several pieces grappling explicitly with this challenge of understanding a bigger picture than any particular ‘scientific investigation’ can formally take on.

Published on March 15, 2018 by

Tuberculosis: well known for centuries – still difficult to diagnose

TB disease has been known by various names for thousands of years, and has of late been described in exquisite biological detail. Yet we still struggle to reliably answer the question: Does a particular person have ‘active’ TB? The available diagnostic tests have several limitations and perform poorly especially in developing countries where they are most needed. We need new point of care diagnostic tests, be able to accurately distinguish between TB infection and TB disease and have tests which accurately predict cure.

Short item Published on June 15, 2016

New ‘R Package’ of Incidence Estimation Tools released on CRAN

A new formal ‘R Package’ to support incidence estimation is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN). This is the canonical way that the R community distributes stable packages to share functionality, and it is the heart and soul of the R coding environment. The new release through CRAN will make a substantial range of functionalities around incidence survey design and survey data analysis seamlessly and flexibly available to any skilled R programmer/analyst.

Published on June 18, 2015 by

Editorial: Time to reflect

As I write, our annual clinic on the Meaningful Modelling of Epidemiological Data (MMED) is in progress, so is the 7th SA AIDS conference, and I just returned from a meeting in Geneva how best to provide advice to teams planning to estimate HIV incidence from large household surveys. In short, it seems to be a time to reflect, to reconsider what we are trying to do, and whether we are making any useful contributions. We hope these quarterly epidemiological update offerings are food for thought.

Published on November 25, 2014 by

Developing a modelling framework for HIV affected children

SACEMA has been involved in the development of a modelling framework for ‘HIV Affected Children’ (children who are not infected themselves, but who have family members, in particular parents, that are infected). The article describes the process, benefits, and challenges of developing this framework that could be used to estimate the magnitude of negative consequences of adult HIV infection for the health and well-being of children.

Published on September 16, 2014 by

‘Exponential Growth’ in the Ebola Outbreak: What does it mean?

Once more we are hearing about ‘exponential growth’ – popularly some sort of synonym for ‘rapid growth’ or ‘explosive growth’ – but actually a technical term with a quite specific meaning. This time the talk is about the ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa, understandably causing increasing disruption (is devastation too strong a word?) in the region, and alarm much further afield.

Older Posts