Published on November 30, 2018 by

Combining demographic and biomarker-based approaches to estimate age-specific incidence

Incidence is the most sensitive indicator of epidemiological trends, but it is hard to estimate for HIV. Epidemic surveillance therefore largely relies on population-level prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic surveys and various forms of routine data. A range of methods are used to estimate HIV incidence, but no single approach attains the levels of precision one might hope for with the data available. To help address this, we developed an approach that implements an optimal weighting of a biomarker-based incidence estimator and an incidence estimator based on estimates of age-specific prevalence and excess mortality.