Evidence that age-disparate relationships (ADR) between young women and older men are an important route of transmission of HIV infection is limited. The results from recent studies indicate that heterosexual relationships between young women and older men may help sustain the epidemic within some populations of South Africa and Malawi. However, the way in which age differences serve to sustain the epidemic of HIV may be different than what has been previously described in observational studies. This article proposes several public health intervention recommendations in relation to ADR and the epidemic of HIV.
Planet Earth has been here for over 4.5 billion years, but in just two human generations we have managed to place our only “home” at great risk. Given today’s uncertainties – social, economic, geopolitical, and environmental, it is clear that many lessons from history have not yet been learned and new lessons may prove equally, if not more, difficult to take on board as we head deeper into this century. My new book seeks to raise awareness about major global issues we face, stimulate discussion or debate and find ways forward to ensure planet and people sustainability.
There have been numerous papers and books on South Africa’s catastrophic era of AIDS denialism. There is much less known and written about the “when-to-start antiretrovirals (ARVs)” debate. This debate offers a fascinating look at how scientific disagreements between reasonable people, who are experts in the field, work, and how consensus evolves as evidence accumulates.
HIV and human papillomavirus (HPV) are two heavy hitting sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Meta-analyses of the association between HPV prevalence and HIV acquisition and the association between HIV prevalence and new HPV detection have estimated a two-fold increased risk in both directions, after adjusting for individual-level (sexual behavioural) factors. The studies argue that biological mechanisms may be responsible for these increased risks, but they also concur that residual confounding due to behaviour at the sexual network level cannot be ruled out. We used an individual based model to shed some light on the matter.
On 18 April 2018, Venetia Karamitsou, PhD student in the Disease Dynamics group at the University of Cambridge, held a talk at SACEMA on modelling the evolution of influence. Given that vaccination is the main control strategy against influenza outbreaks, it is worrisome that influenza mutates often, making reinfection possible even for vaccinated individuals. Existing models regarding the evolution of influenza focus on either changes within hosts or between hosts. The main motivation behind the current research is to find out how both types of models can be combined. The results from the study can be useful in reassessing vaccination policies.
Models of HIV and TB are well established and it is tempting to model the combination of HIV and TB by repeating a suitable TB model a number of times corresponding to the various states of HIV. This can, however, lead to a very complex model with tens, if not hundreds of parameters, requiring considerable computing power to run. Fortunately, the time scales over which the two infections progress are very different, allowing us to greatly simplify the problem.
These short courses will take place at SACEMA, Stellenbosch: Introduction to R: Management, Exploration, and Communication of Data (2-6 July 2018) and Advanced Epidemiological Methods (30 July-2 August 2018).
The Conference theme: “STEP UP – Let’s embrace all to end TB!” provides a unique opportunity to reflect on what we have done across the entire spectrum of our programmes in response to TB, what has been effective and what not, what we need to do to find the missing cases and giving attention to Read More
Sacema will expand its team in 2018. We are looking for mid-career researchers with doctoral degrees in a quantitative field and substantial experience in epidemiological modelling, study design, and data analysis. Areas of particular interest include TB, outbreak response, and emerging infections.
Sacema will organise a practical introduction course to Individual-based Modelling in Epidemiology in May 2018. Postgrad students, postdocs and health science professionals whose work potentially involves the design and/or use of individual-based models in epidemiology are invited to attend.