Published on June 13, 2012 by

What does it take to reduce the rate of new HIV infections by 50% in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa?

Household surveys estimate the proportion of HIV infected persons in KwaZulu-Natal at a level of ~23% of the population. What is urgently needed is to seek ways to reduce HIV incidence while caring for existing infections in KZN. The emerging course of action against HIV spread is to use a combination of prevention interventions rather than relying on individual tools. This article discusses mathematical modelling conducted to forecast the impact of combined interventions at both the short- and long-term. The modelling shows the importance of repeated high coverage of testing, linkage to care, starting treatment on time (at CD4 count 350 or less), and high coverage of circumcision in order to reduce the rate of HIV infection in KZN.