Published on June 28, 2018 by

Modelling Ebola virus disease outbreak risk in Africa

Forecasting when and where Ebola outbreaks will occur is difficult, especially because the ‘reservoir hosts’ of the viruses that cause this disease are not known for certain. There has been a focus on modelling Ebola disease in people and this has informed epidemic control strategies. Less attention has been given to modelling the initial ‘spillover’ events from other species to people, or disease dynamics in reservoirs, because of a lack of data. However, because the wildlife reservoirs and mechanism of spillover are poorly understood, modelling approaches can be used to identify or exclude hypotheses even when data are limited.