HIV

Short item Published on March 15, 2018

Modelling the impact of HIV and ART on TB

Models of HIV and TB are well established and it is tempting to model the combination of HIV and TB by repeating a suitable TB model a number of times corresponding to the various states of HIV. This can, however, lead to a very complex model with tens, if not hundreds of parameters, requiring considerable computing power to run. Fortunately, the time scales over which the two infections progress are very different, allowing us to greatly simplify the problem.

Short item Published on September 14, 2017

Progress in HIV science illuminated at the IAS2017 conference

The biennial International AIDS Society (IAS) Conference on HIV Science was held in Paris, France in July 2017. This article presents some of the highlights of the conference, including the roll of PrEP and the promise of long-acting injectable ARVs, as well as contributions of SACEMA staff in the areas of HIV and Hepatitis C, and HIV and cervical cancer. Basic, clinical, epidemiological and operational research on HIV and the HIV response must continue to be prioritised even while we strengthen our health systems and improve the implementation of existing interventions.

Published on December 9, 2016 by

Editorial: HIV, TB and malaria: Is the end in sight?

The history of sub-Saharan Africa has been defined and determined to a large extent by the struggle against tropical diseases, many of them vector borne, including malaria, leishmaniasis, trypanosomiasis and many others. To add to this burden our continent has now to deal with the ravages of HIV and the consequent rise in tuberculosis. In this issue of the SACEMA Quarterly we discuss some of the key problems and ways in which we might be able to address and mitigate some of the challenges that we face in this regard.

Published on December 9, 2016 by

Monitoring progress towards ending AIDS in South Africa

This article is based on the presentation given by John Hargrove at the NRF Science for Society Lecture entitled Ending HIV/AIDS in South Africa held on 1 December 2016 in Stellenbosch. He argues that the proactive use of ART (Treatment as Prevention or TasP) provides a powerful weapon for combatting the HIV epidemic, and that we also have the tools for monitoring and evaluating the progress of that programme. Mathematical modelling has played an important role, both in suggesting appropriate interventions, and in developing new monitoring methods, but we are still in for a long journey.

Published on June 15, 2016 by

Future needs for characterising the care cascade

With the release of the WHO Consolidated Strategic Information Guidelines , countries are provided with a template, in the form of a depiction of the “Care Cascade”, permitting them to quantify the state of care as it currently stands. The Care Cascade begins by characterising all infected individuals in a population, before illustrating the cascading loss of patients at each stage of care between diagnosis and viral suppression. Countries are now beginning to produce estimates of their national cascades in order to evaluate the efficiency of current care programmes. This article discusses data issues related to cascade reporting and suggests ways to improve reporting.

Published on June 15, 2016 by

Pattern, determinants, and impact of HIV spending on care and treatment in 38 high-burden low- and middle-income countries

To fast-track the HIV response and end AIDS by 2030, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) called for 90-90-90 targets for 2020. Achieving these targets has resource implications – it will require increase in spending and efficient utilization of HIV funding and lead to savings by preventing illness, deaths, and new HIV infections. Thus, how countries decide to allocate and prioritize their HIV funding will directly impact whether end of AIDS is achieved. This article examines the pattern, source, determinants, and impact of HIV spending on care and treatment from 2009 to 2013 in 38 LMICs, which are home to 73% of PLHIV.

Short item Published on June 15, 2016

The impact and cost of Botswana’s progress toward achieving the 2020 UNAIDS 90-90-90 antiretroviral therapy and virological suppression goals

Botswana has made substantial progress towards meeting the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target by 2020 under which 90% of people living with HIV will know their status, 90% of these will be on anti-retroviral therapy (ART), and 90% of these will have viral loads below 400/µL. In this paper we use a previously published model for Botswana to assess the future impact of their HIV control programme on new HIV infections, AIDS related mortality and the costs of doing this. We show that while treatment will have a major impact on incidence and mortality and will lead to net cost savings, prevention will lead to further small reductions in incidence and mortality, but will entail significant cost increases.

Short item Published on June 15, 2016

New ‘R Package’ of Incidence Estimation Tools released on CRAN

A new formal ‘R Package’ to support incidence estimation is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN). This is the canonical way that the R community distributes stable packages to share functionality, and it is the heart and soul of the R coding environment. The new release through CRAN will make a substantial range of functionalities around incidence survey design and survey data analysis seamlessly and flexibly available to any skilled R programmer/analyst.

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