Short item Published on June 18, 2015

New Estimates of the Global Burden of HIV: UNAIDS and the Health Metrics Institute

UNAIDS has reported that the prevalence of people infected with HIV but who are not on ART, the incidence of HIV, and AIDS related mortality are falling. The Health Metrics Institute recently made their own, semi-independent, assessment of the trends in each of these indicators and reached similar conclusions with small differences arising from the use of somewhat different assumptions. Both analyses suggest that the world is on track to end AIDS by 2030, but this will depend on continued expansion of treatment at about the present rate together with supportive prevention efforts in Sub-Saharan Africa. Unfortunately, the data on which these analyses are based is weak in almost all places and better data on patient monitoring, follow-up and support, including drug procurement, supply and delivery, and better routing surveillance are needed.