Mathematical Modeling

Published on March 18, 2013 by

Editorial: Statistical and epidemiological modelling towards Maximizing ART for Better Health and Zero New HIV Infections

The contributions in this issue of the SACEMA Quarterly focus on different aspects related to TB and incidence of HIV. This editorial focuses on HIV treatment as prevention by presenting the MaxART project (Maximizing ART for Better Health and Zero New HIV Infections). This project pursues the dream of reaching all people in Swaziland who are in need of treatment with an ultimate goal of preparing the country for the possibility of ending the HIV epidemic. SACEMA is one of the members of the MaxART consortium and is involved in various modelling and analysis activities that are presented here.

Published on November 28, 2011 by

An investigation into the statistical properties of TB episodes in a South African community with a high HIV prevalence

There are few students in epidemiological modeling and analysis who can resist the temptation to fit a theoretical disease model to real epidemic data. A recent DNA fingerprinting project from Masiphumelele, a township near Cape Town, offered such a temptation. The result is a short journey into the world of statistically rare events, in this case brought about by the relatively small size of Masiphumele and by the slow reactivation rates of TB.