Published on September 12, 2012 by

Challenges to quantitative modelling of cholera disease transmission

Outbreaks of cholera are ongoing, with recent outbreaks in Zimbabwe and Haiti highlighting the devastation this disease can cause. In response, several mathematical models of cholera transmission have been proposed, with the aim of comparing the impact of interventions including provision of clean water, antibiotics, and vaccination. In this piece, we provide a brief summary of how uncertainty in parameters and the spatial heterogeneity of cholera incidence argue for cautious interpretation of quantitative predictions about the impact of interventions.