SACEMA Quarterly

Update on epidemiology for health professionals and policy makers.
SACEMA Quarterly is an online magazine produced by SACEMA. The aim is to provide articles reviewing developments in quantitative epidemiology. The intention of the magazine is to present this work in a way that it is accessible to the interested health professional and policy-maker.
Sunday 20th of May 2012
John Hargrove

The growing problem of data mortality

In order to assess the effects of Treatment as Prevention (TaP) on HIV incidence, results from HIV testing over time need to be available. This links to two aspects of information retention – data storage and data usage – which are discussed and illustrated by the case of HIV testing data in this editorial.

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Guy Mahiane, Bertran Auvert

BED Incidence Testing for Evaluating HIV Intervention Programs

The ability to estimate reliable HIV incidence rate ratios (IRRs) using cross-sectional data has vast public health importance in HIV surveillance and in prevention studies; it would reduce the need to recruit and maintain large and costly longitudinal cohorts. In fact, the most common method to evaluate HIV IRR is through cohort studies which are designed to estimate HIV incidence and the effects of interventions. However, the development of biomarkers which identify recently HIV infected individuals has made it possible to estimate HIV incidence using a cross-sectional survey. Following that, one study used classical statistical methods to analyse risk factors of recent HIV infection identified with a biomarker. It is therefore important to determine how that technology can be used to estimate incidence rate ratios.

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Babalwa Zani, Tamara Kredo

Antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission in HIV-discordant couples – a Cochrane Systematic Review

Observational studies suggest that sexual transmission of HIV may be lower in couples in which one partner is infected with HIV and the other is not (HIV-discordant couples) if the infected partner is on antiretroviral therapy (ART). If ART does confer a prevention benefit, in addition to its well established therapeutic efficacy, it may be an indication to initiate treatment earlier than currently recommended. Recently a systematic review was conducted on the issue and based on the evidence provided by one randomised controlled trial and seven observational cohort studies, ART has been shown to be a potent intervention for prevention of HIV in discordant couples. More results of the review are reported here, as well as the implications for practice and research.

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Brian Williams, Alex Welte

Imagine a world without AIDS

Scientists at SACEMA have been in the forefront of those arguing that the time to end AIDS is now and the way to do this is through the strategic use of potent anti-retroviral therapy (ART). The road ahead will be long and hard and much still needs to be done. If we are to increase the number of people in the world who are on ART from the present 5 million to 15 million by, say, 2015 and to 30 million by 2020, many operational challenges will have to be understood and met. Here we outline the most important issues that need to be explored if treatment-as-prevention is to become a reality and if we are to end AIDS.

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Short Items

Here we present short articles on recent publications, conference announcements and reports related to the work of SACEMA.